LatAm Markets This Week: A Stronger Dollar, Cheaper Oil, and What It Means for Costa Rica

June 29, 2026

This week’s LatAm story is a tug-of-war between two global forces pulling in opposite directions: a broad US dollar rally squeezing regional currencies and equities, against oil prices sliding to a pre-war low — quietly easing costs for energy-importing economies, Costa Rica included.

The Big Picture (as of Monday, June 29)

Equities: Ibovespa (Brazil) 173,295 (+0.76%) · IPSA (Chile) 10,762 (+0.52%) · IPC (Mexico) 67,226 (–0.28%) · Merval (Argentina) 3,123,411 (+0.88%) · COLCAP (Colombia) 2,286 (+1.09%) · BVL (Peru) 55,499 (+1.21%)
Currencies: USD/BRL 5.17 · USD/MXN 17.50 · USD/CLP 921.85 · USD/COP 3,437 · USD/ARS ~1,477
Oil: Brent $72.60 (–3.5%) · WTI $69.23 (–3.7%) — a pre-war low as the geopolitical risk premium from recent Middle East tensions continues draining out. Good news for energy importers like Costa Rica; a headwind for Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil’s commodity names.
Copper: firmer (+2.25%) — relevant for Chile and Peru — with a US tariff decision on refined copper still due by end of month.

The green open today follows a rougher prior week, where dollar strength hit Argentina and Colombia hardest — the Merval dropped over 4% and COLCAP fell three straight sessions — while Brazil held up comparatively well.

Country Notes

Brazil: Resilient. Commodity names (Petrobras, Vale) softened with oil, but banks rallied on rate-cut hopes, and foreign inflows hit a record ~$4.1bn in a single day last week. Selic holds at 14.25%; Copom minutes explaining the latest decision are out Tuesday. Lula’s path to a fourth term is increasingly a market variable as polling shifts.
Mexico: Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50%. The peso has been on a multi-session losing streak, with USMCA rules-of-origin friction adding a persistent overhang.
Argentina: Hit hardest by the dollar rally — the Merval fell over 4% on top of an MSCI index snub, a reminder that the hoped-for upgrade to the index conversation hasn’t landed yet.
Colombia: Peso and COLCAP under pressure heading into a closely watched central bank rate decision Tuesday.
Chile: Peso softer even as copper firmed; the market is still waiting on that US tariff call on refined copper, a real swing factor for Chile’s terms of trade either way.
Peru: Election result confirmed; a court ruling on the China-backed Chancay port project is also in focus for investors tracking the logistics build-out.

What to Watch This Week

Thursday: US June payrolls (moved up a day for the July 4 holiday) — the cleanest read yet on whether US hiring is stabilizing or still slowing
Tuesday: Colombia’s central bank rate decision
End of month: the US tariff decision on refined copper

Costa Rica Corner

This week’s colón move is a small taste of the broader dollar story hitting the region: USD/CRC ticked up about 2% to roughly ₡450.59 — a rare weekly move against the multi-year “super colón” appreciation trend.

The bigger trend: the colón has still appreciated roughly 9% since the start of 2026 by IMF figures, part of a multi-year run that took USD/CRC from a 2022 high near ₡647 down toward the ₡500 area — driven by tight BCCR policy, strong FDI inflows, and favorable terms of trade.
The flip side: Costa Rica closed 2025 with –1.23% inflation, and January 2026 CPI fell –2.5% year-over-year — the steepest monthly drop since 1983. The BCCR has cut its policy rate from a 9% peak (2023) to 3.25%, though critics argue not fast enough relative to falling prices.
Growth: the World Bank trimmed Costa Rica’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, citing the drag from Middle East-driven energy prices on the global economy — still well above the 2.2% LatAm regional average and among the strongest readings in Central America.

Investor read-through: for anyone underwriting Costa Rica real estate or rental income in dollar terms, this week is a reminder that the “stable colón” story isn’t a one-way bet. A multi-year appreciation trend can still see real weekly swings tied to global dollar strength — and that cuts both ways for dollar-denominated investors and colón-cost operators alike.

Market levels are as of Monday morning and will move. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.